A Theory of Change is a powerful tool that brings clarity and direction to the complex process of planning and navigating change at a strategic level. It serves as a dynamic roadmap for impact management, offering a clear pathway through the essential elements of change-making. By breaking down the journey into actionable steps, it empowers users to make informed decisions and stay focused on achieving meaningful, long-term outcomes.

A Theory of Change can be applied throughout the entire process, though it is most commonly used at the outset to help define key parameters and conditions necessary for successful change management. It provides a framework to address critical questions such as:

How will the change unfold and what steps are needed?
What pace is most appropriate for implementing the change?
What are the realistic limits on what can be accomplished?
How will disruption manifest, and how can it be managed?
What conditions are necessary to build and sustain trust?
What are the essential factors for ensuring long-term success?

By answering these questions, the Theory of Change sets a strong foundation for achieving meaningful, sustainable change.

Important differentiators

Change management models

While theory of change models require change management principles to be applied, a theory of change model typically differs from change management models by being generally broader and outlining the high-level goals, interventions, preconditions, and assumptions for achieving large-scale change over time.

Strategic planning

Strategic planning requires a similar “thought time-travel” process that is essential in both Theory of Change and change management. All three approaches demand that strategic leaders reflect on their current position, understand how they got there, and envision where they are headed. However, strategic planning takes this a step further by focusing on indicators of success, defining actionable steps, articulating the desired impact, and quantifying specific outcomes. This deeper level of analysis ensures that the path forward is clear, measurable, and aligned with long-term goals, making it not only a roadmap for change but also a detailed guide for measuring progress and achieving success.

Different Theory of Change models

There are lots of different Theory of Change models. Some are very simple while other are more complex.

Some simple models include:

Why - Who - How - What: This model provides a simple structure and a high-level overview of a change initiative. By covering rationale and motivation (Why), the audience (Who) and strategies (How), it also clearly creates a linked process to achieve identified outcomes (What).

Why-Who-How-What provides a simple framework for a theory of change and can help identify key steps, particularly for design and communication.

The LOGIC model: is a sequence model that sets out key steps to move from a ‘problem’ to ‘impact’, or solution'.

The LOGIC model illustrates how activities will lead to the change (outcomes and impact) that an intervention seeks to achieve.

Another simple model is the RESULTS CHAIN, which sets out an ‘if / then’ process across immediate, intermediate and long-term outcomes.

As an example, let’s consider an organisation aiming to achieve a strategic goal of launching a new service. The desired impact is successful implementation, effective change and transitions management and increased client satisfaction, uptake of and revenue generated from the service by clients.

The Results chain would help planners to construct a simple narrative, along the lines of: ‘If we do W (input), then we will be able to achieve / deliver X (immediate outcome), which will lead to Y (intermediate outcome), which will ultimately result in Z (Long-term outcome). E.g. “If we provide training to staff on supporting clients to access the new service (input), then we will be able to increase staff skill, confidence and preparedness for the service launch per the project plan (immediate outcome), which will lead to an effective launch of the new service and improved service options for existing clients (intermediate outcome), and ultimately lead to increased satisfaction, uptake of and revenue generation from the service by clients.” Or something similar.

The Attuned Leadership Theory of Strategic Change

At Attuned Leadership, while we appreciate the value of existing models, we found that none fully addressed all the complexities we need to consider with clients. As a result, we developed our own original design that combines elements of a Theory of Change with a strategic planning methodology. A simplified version is below that sets out the main ways we help out clients move from ‘here’ to ‘there’ while understanding the ‘how’ and ‘why’, and many other discovery questions we initiate with clients to build a complete picture of and plan for change.